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This month's write-up is by Jonathan Mestel.
West is likely to declare 2♠ which will make unless the defenders score a trump promotion. Suppose North leads ♣K to the ace and West leads ♠8 to the 9 and 10. North does best to duck this. If declarer mistakenly continues with ♠K, play could continue ♠A, ♦K, ♣Q, ♦A and now a spade ruff with ♠Q is followed by a club promoting ♠6. This would be very hot defence, though. Declarer might play a spade to the king on the first round, when a trump promotion is very likely. Note that at love all EW will get a poor score for setting 1NT two tricks if 2♠ is making. |
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4♠ is quite a good contract, but I expect 170 for East-West to be the
normal score. The defence just doesn't have enough time to establish
tricks in both red suits.
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South will likely open 1NT and
North will attempt to play in hearts. East-West are likely to compete
but will go for 200 in 2♠ or 3♦, even if not doubled. Sometimes it pays to be silent.
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I predict 5♥ by South will be a common contract, as EW get together in diamonds. In 6♥ declarer draws trumps and eliminates the minors. Then ♠A and a spade to the jack endplays East.
But
note that if East held ♠K102 West could foil the endplay by unblocking
♠Q under the ace! So declarer should cash ♠A early on, before the
position is clear. |
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If North opens a weak 2♥
South is likely to raise to game, On the natural ♠Q lead, a diamond
loser will disappear on ♠AK. Declarer now leads a club, and he
will succeed if he makes the correct play of finessing
the 9, rather than rising with the K. If North passes, East opens 1♠,
South overcalls 1NT and North will likely transfer to hearts. West may
well lead ♣Q, and the defenders may take the first 4 tricks.
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North-South will make ten or eleven tricks in spades on a heart lead,
but has chances of twelve on a neutral lead. According to system South
opens 1♣ or 1NT and this will determine who is declarer. A heart lead
from either side is normal, but perhaps more so from West.
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The auction may start 1♣-1♦-1♥
and now West may choose to bid 4♠, especially at pairs scoring. This
will end the auction. If South finds a club lead the defence will take 4
tricks but on any other lead 4♠ will make ten or eleven. If instead
West decides to make a "fit jump" of 2♠ or 3♠, the better contract of 5♦ may be reached, but I don't think it will score well.
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4♠ is a likely contract, doomed by the trump break even if declarer picks clubs. Conservative NS pairs will score well.
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A possible slam for East-West. The computer makes 13 tricks in hearts by finessing ♥8 on the second round, discarding two diamonds on spades and ruffing a diamond! But that is fantasy.
If North opens 3♣, it will be difficult to reach 6♥, but if North passes, the auction may begin P-1NT-P-2♥(transfer), 2NT(minors)-P-3♦-3♥, P-4♣(cue for hearts) and slam should be reached. 6♥ should make if ♥J is finessed. On some auctions, the deep finesse of the ♥8 may be plausible. |
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A somewhat lucky 3NT for
North-South, but they may do better to double East's spade call. Would
you open 3♠ or 2♠ with East? If the auction starts 3♠-P-P-X would you
pass or bid 4♥ with South? Not so clear, but one is -500 and the other +800.
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Ten tricks in spades look normal. The defence lead diamonds, declarer cashes ♠AK and ruffs clubs in dummy.
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North opens 4♥ and it may go 4♥-X-P-4♠,
P-P-X-P, P-? Should East remove to 5♣? On this occasion certainly -
it's never good news when the defence start with a ruff with a singleton
trump! 5♣ doubled is only 300 as the losing spade goes on ♦J, but even 500 would be cheap.
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1♥-1♠, 2♠-4♠. On ♦Q
lead eleven tricks are normal (or twelve with a good trump guess) . On
any other lead, ♣10 can be established and even thirteen may be
possible.
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What should East rebid after 1♦-1♠? Here the matchpoint winner is 2♠ (provided you make it!) But give North ♠Q and 2♦ will play better.
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West opens 1NT, North makes a two-suited overcall, and East competes. At
the vulnerability, South will pass, and North will bid 3♠. South will
convert to 4♥ with some trepidation, but he should make at least 10 tricks. 4♠ may fail on a bad day,
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1NT-4♠ would be a reasonable auction - even if partner has four hearts,
spades will probably play better. On the obvious diamond lead the play
holds no interest. But suppose East transfers, and North is on lead.
Holding such trump control it is tempting to try for a heart ruff. Say
declarer wins the heart lead and leads ♠10, North wins and leads a second heart. What should West do now? On a 2nd trump South will discard ♦A and will give partner the sought after ♥ ruff
assuming the signal is clear enough for North! The contract can still
be made by a scissors coup ♣A, then ♣Q discarding a diamond. But this line would fail on other lies.
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A part-score battle. North-South would rather bid three of a red
suit than defend 2♠ at love all. But South has no attractive call
after 1♦-X and should probably pass and
then maybe compete with 2NT over 2♠. If East-West take the push to 3♠,
North-South have the chance of a plus score.
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Over 1♣ South can bid a Michaels 2♣, getting the shape but not the
strength across, or start with 1♠. I expect many will miss game as
North-South, and the par spot of 5♣x by East will not score so well for
East-West.
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Given the vulnerability I expect NS will buy the contract in 2♦, which may even make. Prospects in clubs depend on the lead and the views taken in hearts, clubs, and spades. Any number from seven to ten tricks is possible.
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650 to East-West in hearts. North-South may never get into the auction, but even if they do, West will take the push to 5♥. Even on the ♣Q lead, twelve tricks cannot be made provided South switches to diamonds when in with ♥A, breaking up a criss-cross squeeze against North.
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If South opens 1♣, do you prefer a double or 1♥
with West? I prefer bidding the five-card major, but here East-West
might never find their spade fit. A possible auction is P-P-1♣-X, 2♦-2♠-4♣-P, P-P Here 2♦ is a fit jump. West will lead ♠A and East will signal for hearts with ♠9, saving any overtricks.
Alternatively, it may start 1♣-1♥-2♣-2♥ and I would now be tempted by 2NT as South. If North leaves that in, the defence will still be cashing tricks tomorrow... |
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Do you open a weak 2♥ vulnerable as East? If you do, after 2♥-P-P-X, P South is unlikely to leave the double in and may prefer 2♠, which North will raise and EW will do well.
If East passes, North will double a weak NT, East will run to 2♥. Now at pairs South will likely try for +200. 2♥x should fail unless declarer is permitted to pitch his club on the 3rd spade. |
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1♠-P-2♠ and East will surely act. I would try 3♥, but that won't fare well, especially if North finds a reopening double.
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1NT-P-P to South. A steady pass
leads to 150 to East-West with everything sitting well. At love all, it
pays to try to disturb opponents from 1NT, and I might try an Asptro 2♣
bid, intending to pass 2♦, but hitting 4
hearts opposite. East will double for take-out if that's his agreement,
and West has a problem. If he manages to pass that's 300 and a top, but
most likely he'll try 3♣, which will probably net only 130. To bid 2♠ on
KJx would be particularly inspired.
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